Christians in South Africa: The statistical picture

Christians in South Africa; The statistical picture Government censuses since 1960 indicate that the religious picture was already largely fixed by the 1950s. Already at that stage some 3 out o f 4 South Africans identified themselves as ‘Christians’. Since then this percentage grew steadily, mainly because o f ongoing growth in the chris­ tianising o f the black population. The high percentage o f people who didn’t supply any religious information during the 1991 census makes re­ cent analysis difficult. However, two trends seem clear: (a) the move­ ment towards African Independent Churches (AICs) is continuing, and (b) a significant number joins the newer Apostolic/Charismatic church­ es. Another reality is the presence o f Christian nominality, which is not refiected in the census figures, but can be as high as 75%.


INTRODUCTION
In the S eptem ber 1993 num ber of the M A R C Newsletter^, a publication with a worldwide distribution, I read the following news item; Church affiliation in South Africa has been in radical decline since 1970 with the percentage of the population that regard themselves as Christian dropping from 54 percent in 1970 to 38 percent in 1990.
{MARC Newsletter 1993;2) I couldn't believe my eyes, because that is totally at odds with my reading of the official census results since 1970.
As they gave as their source the South African Christian Handbook 1993/4 of M arjorie Froise^ it was easy to check the correctness of the quote.O n page ix I found the following paragraph: W hen the statistics for the P ro te sta n t denom inations are added together, the data indicates that 54% of the total population regarded themselves as Christian in 1970 (A lC excluded).By 1980, this figure had dropped to 47,5% and in 1990, to 38%.A lthough the 1990 figure^ is possibly not correct, it is the ed ito r's conviction that the downward trend is continuing.
(South African Christian Handbook 1993/4 1994:ix) It is clear that whoever wrote the news item for the M ARC Newsletter was using this paragraph incorrectly.It is explicitly m entioned that these figures apply to the Protestant denominations.However, the said author could plead extenuating circum stances, because Maijorie Froise's formulation is not clear.But the fact is that, even though the (mainline) Protestant membership may be on a relative decline, it is not true of the total number of 'Christians''*.Apart from the above problems I have with the information given by M ARC and Marjorie Froise, I want to take her up on another issue.Why, in the above quoted paragraph, did she exclude (a) the (Roman) Catholic Church and (b) the AICs, the group of Churches variously called the African Independent/Indigenous/Initiated Churches?Was it Froise's intention to count only the 'Protestants' as Christians?If so, I beg to disagree.
I count (for statistical purposes) all those who state an affiliation to a Christian Church, quite independent of what I may think of that Church.Who am I to ex clude the members of certain Churches from this number, just because I have que ries about (some of) their doctrinal formulations, or have no inclination towards (some of) their rituals?The fact (which I will substantiate later on) is that the AICs are growing strongly in numbers and in stature within the Christian camp.At the same time the Rom an Catholic Church is the largest Christian Church worldwide, and in South Africa maybe the only 'mainline' Church that (until recently) seemed to be growing as fast as the general population.It is unacceptable to simply exclude these Churches.
I do agree that not all those who are counted as 'Christians' in the government census can be regarded as Christians.I use this wonderful title in a qualitatively sense, and reserve it for those who are conscious followers of Jesus Christ, made a faith commitment, and seriously strive to live as his disciples.As a m atter of fact, I find four levels of Christian statistics: • T he m ost superficial level is the governm ent census.This o ften m erely indicates that the person (or family) is not attached to any alternative religious body, or that a member of the family sometimes attends church services.
• The next statistical level is the official figures of the Churches.This is usually a much lower figure -maybe 2 out of every 3 of the above.
• Not all of the people on the Church lists regularly attend church services or take part in church activities.This third level can be fewer than 1/2.
• The last level (and smallest number) indicate those who I defined above as the 'committed Christians'^.This number is very difficult to come by.If we take these committed Christians to be about 2 out of every 3 church attenders, then they are not more than about a quarter of the number counted in the govern ment census^.This means that the government census' 80% nominally Christian population would translate to 20% 'committed Christians'.I think that these four levels are present in every single Church.There is no absolutely purified Church, as there is no (Christian) Church without a single com mitted Christian.My approach is therefore not to discount any denomination, but to be realistic about the quality of Christian com m itm ent.T he very optim istic official figures can be taken as (reasonably) correct counts (quantitatively), but that doesn't mean that they should be accepted uncritically as giving qualitative truth.If these official figures (I will deal with them in a moment) would represent quality Christians, then the South African scene"^ deals a heavy blow to any thoughts of moral superiority that Christianity may entertain!

WHAT A R E TH E STATISTICAL FACTS?
To see something of the trends I pick up the story in 1960®.As can readily be seen in the statistical tables, the religious make-up of South Africa® was already largely stabilised by the sixties.Over the past three decades, however, two m ain trends seem to develop: (a) the christianising of the (black) population seems to be progressing steadily, and (b) the newer Christian movements are growing relatively faster than the traditional mainline denominations.
Before giving the tables, which will reflect the figures for the 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1991 government censuses, it is necessary to m ake a few rem arks about the most recent (1991) census.The 1991 census forms stated explicitly that the fur nishing of information on religious affiliation was voluntary.(No other information was classified as such.)O n my enquiries the office stated that this confidentiality was according to longstanding regulations.These regulations may have been in force at the time of the previous censuses, but the voluntary nature of the survey was never stated so clearly, with the result that only 3% of the people didn't provide this information in 1980.Not so this time.A large num ber of people (almost 30% of the total) in 1991 decided not to furnish any inform ation on their religious affi liation.There may be many reasons why they reacted as they did.Some could have done it for political reasons -because the census did become a political football.Others opted out because of frustration with the form.Still others may indeed have regarded religion as a personal m atter.The fact is that we don't know anything about these people's affiliation.To accept -as some do -that these people are all non-Christians is just as mistaken as the supposition that they are all Christians.I am sure that many of them (the majority) should actually be counted with the 25 million 'Christians', but I caimot say how manyio.• But what are the dynamics within the Christian grouping?In the following table 2 we look at the Christian community in order to detect possible shifts.Four remarks may be made; • The African Initiated Churches (AICs) as a group has grown very strongly during the last decades.At least 1 oiit of 3 Christians nowadays hold membership in one of the great number of these churches.One of them, the Zion Christian Church (ZCC), has grown to the fourth largest Church overall, after the Dutch Reformed Churches, the Roman Catholic Church and the Methodist Church.
• The Roman Catholic Church has (until recently) grown steadily at a faster rate than the population.It seems to be the only traditional denomination to hold its own against the AICs.
• All the other mainline churches are losing out in term s of their share of the (Christian) population.The NG Kerk (Dutch Reform ed Church) is still the largest of these and this family of churches (still technically not one, but four Churches) comprises the largest block next to the AICs.
• An amorphous group which may be called Apostolic/Pentecostal Churches seems to be growing at a faster rate than the others, be it from a very low base.

WHAT RACE A RE THESE CHRISTIANS?
There are still people around who associate Christianity with the West and white faces.Is this true of South African Christianity?As the 1991 census may have been the last one based on the racial classification of Blacks, Whites, Coloureds and Asians, we may (for the last time) use the race-based statistics to make the point clear that this is not true.T he overwhelming m ajority of the Christians of South A frica are Black.The Christian community nowadays reflect the racial composition of the total popu lation.Some Churches are to a large extent based in the White community (e g the DRC), but others (e g the ZCC) are almost totally Black, but those that are monoracial in principle are very few and insignificant.

W H ERE A R E T H E CHRISTIANS?
It may be interesting to note differences in the religious situation of the regions of the country.In my 1986 publication interesting facts came to light regarding the relative unevangelised areas.W ithout being able to do it with the same level of detail, I will now analyse the published 1991 tables in terms of regional differencesl**.
Chrisdans in South Africa 2. This is an extremely informative publication, already in its third edition.In it M arjorie Froise brings together and systematizes data on the hundreds of Christian organizations and churches operating in South Africa.These lists is preceded by a statistical and descriptive character on 'T he church in South Africa'.
3. I do not know where she obtained the 1990 figures, because the government census, which she seems to be using, was only done in 1991.
4. The reason why I put the term 'Christians' in inverted commas will become clear in the course of the next argument.
5. I am aw are th at the creation of a category of 'com m itted C hristians' will probably be controversial.However, I am trying to deal with the factual situation of nominality, without discrediting the statistical returns.
6.These proportions are not much more than rough observations.They are, however, based on indications gleaned from case studies.
7. What is meant is the unbelievable levels of hate, intolerance and violence that are daily in the news.
8. I use my own published tables for 1960, 1970 and 1980 (Kritzinger 1986), and the published report of the 1991 census of the RSA (03-01-22 (1991)) for the compilation of the tables.For the last column I added the (unofficial) popu lation of the TBVC states in the same religious breakdow n as was found in South Africa.9.It is quite difficult to compose a statistical picture of 'South Africa'.After 1970 the four 'hom elands', Transkei, Bophuthatswana, V enda and Ciskei, becam e independent as the so-called TBVC states.Since 1980 they conducted their own censuses.I tried to include inform ation for the whole of the historic South Africa in tables 1 and 2.
10.This is why I still tend to view the 1980 results as more authoritative.My feeling is that the 1980 breakdown, extrapolated to the present population figures, still provides our best picture.

Table 1 :
Adherents of the different religions in South Africa, 1960 to 1991 (in thousands and percentages).
• The first trend spoken of can clearly be seen in the above table.Not only were practically 3 out of every 4 South Africans already by 1960 affiliated to one or other Christian church, but the proportion seems still to be growing.I think this can also be said of the period since 1980, because many of the 11 million who declined to answer the religious question w ere in fact 'C hristians'.(It is interesting to note that not less than 94% of those who did answer the question indicated themselves as Christians.)

Table 2 :
The relative strength of Christian groupings in South Africa, 1960 to 1991 (in thousands and percentages).
abel 3: The racial breakdown of the main Christian groupings in the Republic of South Africa, 1991 (in thousands and percentages)'Ĝ

Table 4 :
The Christians and non-Christians of the different regions of the Republic of South Africa 1991 (Thousands and percentages).This last group makes it difficult to substantiate trends.The final question remains unanswered: what can be known about the religious affiliation of this 30%?ENDNOTES 1. M ARC is the acronym for Mission Advanced Research and Communication Cen ter, a m inistry of World Vision International of Monrovia', C alifornia.It maintains a high standard of research and promotes a holistic view and practice of mission.